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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-02-20T11:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-02-20T11:00Z
CME Note: From Dr. Lan Jian: In the declining part of the fast wind stream, there seem to be two flux ropes: one during Feb 23 05UT Feb 24 03UT, and the other one from Feb 24 04UT to present.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-02-23T05:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-02-23T12:28Z (-18.0h, +18.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 75.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

From: Solar Influences Data analysis Center 
Sent: Monday, February 22, 2021 6:16 AM
To: Mays, M. Leila (GSFC-6740) 
Subject: [EXTERNAL] CME arrival alert

This mail contains the xml version of the CME arrival alert.
expected arrival time: 2021-02-23T12:28:00
time_uncertainty: 18
min_estimated_peak_K: 3
max_estimated_peak_K: 6
probability_of_arrival: 75

:Issued: 2021 Feb 21 1114 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
A partial-halo Coronal Mass Ejection (with and angular width of about 152
degree) was observed on SOHO/LASCO coronagraph images on February 20, 2021,
around 11:30 UTC. The CME is due to a filament located around -15 degree
longitude and -20 degree latitude that erupted around 10:00 UTC. The
projected speed was estimated between 300 km/s and 500 km/s, but we
estimated the true speed to be higher up to 600 km/s. Since the filament
was located close to the central meridian of the solar disc, we expected
the CME to glance Earth in about 2-3 days from now (around February 23 and
24).
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Lead Time: 41.77 hour(s)
Difference: -7.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Yaireska Collado (M2M Office) on 2021-02-21T11:14Z

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